Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, Advisor, Consultant, Researcher at Global South Economic and Trade Cooperation Research Center, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

The Ukraine conflict has taken a dramatic turn with President Donald Trump's direct engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This shift in U.S. foreign policy, aimed at fulfilling Trump's campaign promise of ending prolonged conflicts, raises critical questions about its implications for Ukraine, Europe, and the broader global order. While a potential resolution may bring much-needed stability, it could also redefine power dynamics in Europe and beyond, with consequences that extend far beyond the battlefield.

Background of the Ukraine Conflict

The roots of the Ukraine war trace back to 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea following political upheaval in Ukraine. This moves escalated tensions between Russia and Western nations, leading to a series of sanctions and countermeasures that deepened the divide. The situation intensified in 2022 with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, plunging the region into a prolonged and devastating conflict.

One of the most contentious factors behind the crisis has been NATO’s eastward expansion. Russia has long viewed NATO’s growing presence near its borders as a direct threat to its national security. Despite repeated warnings from Moscow, Western policymakers continued efforts to integrate Ukraine into the Western security framework, reinforcing Russia’s belief that decisive military action was necessary to protect its strategic interests. NATO’s enlargement, though framed as a defensive measure, became the primary catalyst for the conflict, setting the stage for the current geopolitical standoff.

Recent Diplomatic Engagements

In a significant departure from previous U.S. policy, President Trump held a lengthy phone call with President Putin on February 12, 2025, signaling a willingness to negotiate directly with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. This conversation led to an agreement to commence immediate diplomatic talks, with both leaders expressing their commitment to working closely toward a resolution.

Following this, high-level meetings were held in Saudi Arabia, involving U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. These discussions aimed to lay the groundwork for a potential Trump-Putin summit. Notably, however, Ukrainian representatives were absent from these negotiations, raising concerns in Kyiv and among European allies. The exclusion of Ukraine from the process has fueled speculation that any peace deal would primarily serve U.S. and Russian interests rather than Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Russian Gains on the Ground

Since the onset of the conflict, Russia has significantly expanded its territorial control in Ukraine, securing key regions in the east and south. These gains have not only bolstered Russia’s strategic position but have also provided Moscow with substantial leverage in any diplomatic negotiations. Despite Western sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, Russia has maintained its battlefield momentum, solidifying its hold over occupied territories. Militarily, Ukraine has struggled to reclaim lost ground, particularly in the face of dwindling Western support and internal exhaustion.

With Trump cutting off U.S. military aid to Ukraine and signaling a reluctance to continue NATO’s extensive involvement, the balance of power has further shifted in Russia’s favor. European allies, already divided on their approach to Ukraine, now face a more uncertain future as Trump’s policy distances Washington from direct intervention. This development leaves Ukraine with few viable options, increasing the likelihood that Kyiv will be forced to accept a deal dictated by Moscow.

Implications of a Potential Deal

A U.S.-Russia brokered deal to end the Ukraine war could have far-reaching implications across multiple domains:

1.Regional Impact

The exclusion of Ukraine from peace negotiations undermines its sovereignty and could set a dangerous precedent for future conflicts. If a settlement is reached without Ukraine’s direct participation, it may serve as a model for resolving international disputes by sidelining affected nations. A peace settlement that favors Russia’s interests, particularly in terms of territorial adjustments, would reshape the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe.

2.European Concerns

European nations, already fractured in their response to the Ukraine crisis, now face an even more precarious situation. The potential disengagement of the U.S. from European security affairs weakens NATO’s cohesion and shifts the burden of defense onto European nations. Germany and France may seek to assert greater independence in managing European security, but divisions within the EU could hinder a unified approach. Eastern European states, particularly Poland and the Baltic nations, may feel increasingly vulnerable to Russian influence.

3.Global Economic Effects

A resolution to the conflict could have stabilizing effects on global markets, particularly in the energy sector. Europe's reliance on Russian energy has been a significant concern throughout the war, and a peace deal could lead to a restoration of trade and energy supplies. If sanctions on Russia are eased or lifted, global oil and gas prices could become more predictable, reducing inflationary pressures worldwide.

However, the realignment of economic and trade relationships will depend on the specifics of the peace agreement. If Russia emerges as the clear victor, Western businesses may need to reconsider their strategies in Eastern Europe. The restructuring of supply chains, financial markets, and trade alliances will shape the post-war economic order for years to come.

A Positive Outlook

While many aspects of the ongoing negotiations raise valid concerns, there are also reasons for cautious optimism:

Conflict Resolution: An end to active hostilities will halt the loss of human lives and allow for reconstruction efforts in war-torn areas, contributing to regional stability.

Economic Recovery: The cessation of military operations could lead to the easing of economic sanctions, revitalizing trade and investment opportunities for both Ukraine and Russia.

Diplomatic Reengagement: The initiation of dialogue, even if flawed, opens pathways for broader discussions involving Ukraine, European nations, and other global stakeholders. A balanced and lasting peace may still be achievable through continued diplomacy.

Conclusion

President Trump’s direct engagement with President Putin marks a pivotal moment in the Ukraine conflict. While his approach fulfills campaign promises of ending foreign wars, the strategy must be carefully navigated to prevent long-term destabilization in Europe. The exclusion of Ukraine from negotiations is a troubling precedent, and any settlement must balance immediate conflict resolution with the long-term interests of global security.

A just and sustainable resolution requires inclusive negotiations that respect the sovereignty of all parties involved. If handled judiciously, this moment could pave the way for a new era of global diplomacy—one that prioritizes pragmatic solutions over prolonged hostilities. By fostering comprehensive dialogue and collaboration, the hope remains that a peaceful and prosperous future can be secured for Ukraine, Europe, and the broader international community.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)

原文链接：APD |The Trump-Putin Talks: A New Chapter in the Ukraine Conflict. -APDNEWS