Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, Advisor, Consultant, Researcher at Global South Economic and Trade Cooperation Research Center, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

The recent diplomatic engagement between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump has led to a pivotal shift in regional power dynamics. The United States has agreed to enhance military sales to India, including the potential provision of F-35 fighter jets, as part of a new 10-year defense cooperation framework. While this development is celebrated by some as a strategic partnership, it raises significant concerns about regional stability, especially considering India's historical relations with its neighbors and its internal political trajectory.

Escalation of Regional Power Imbalance

India's acquisition of advanced military technology, such as the F-35, is poised to alter the strategic equilibrium in South Asia. This move is perceived as an escalation, prompting neighboring countries to reassess their security postures. Pakistan, for instance, views this development as a direct threat, potentially triggering an arms race in the region. Similarly, China's strategic calculations are influenced by India's bolstered military capabilities, leading to increased tensions along their shared borders.

Strained Relations with Neighbors

India's relationships with its immediate neighbors have been fraught with challenges. The longstanding Kashmir dispute has been a flashpoint with Pakistan, leading to multiple conflicts and ongoing skirmishes. Relations with China have also been tense, marked by border disputes and military standoffs, notably the deadly clash in the Galwan Valley in 2020. Additionally, India's interactions with Nepal and Bangladesh have experienced strains over territorial and resource-sharing issues. The introduction of advanced weaponry into this volatile mix exacerbates existing tensions and undermines prospects for peaceful resolution.

Internal Political Climate: Rise of Extremism

Internally, India's political landscape has witnessed a shift towards majoritarianism, with the rise of extremist groups such as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the promotion of Hindutva ideology. This shift has manifested in increased intolerance towards religious and ethnic minorities, leading to incidents of communal violence and discrimination. The intertwining of such extremist ideologies with state policies raises alarms about the potential misuse of advanced military technologies against internal dissent and marginalized communities.

Implications for Regional Peace and Security

The U.S.'s decision to augment India's military arsenal without addressing the broader geopolitical ramifications may inadvertently destabilize the region. A militarily emboldened India, underpinned by an ideology of intolerance, poses a complex challenge to regional peace. Neighboring countries, feeling threatened, may seek to enhance their own military capabilities, leading to an arms race that diminishes resources for development and exacerbates poverty and instability.

The Role of the United States in Maintaining Balance

As a global leader, the United States bears a responsibility to promote peace and stability. While strategic partnerships are essential, they must be pursued with a nuanced understanding of regional dynamics. Unconditional military support to a nation with strained regional relationships and internal extremist tendencies can have unintended consequences. It is imperative for the U.S. to engage in balanced diplomacy, encouraging dialogue and cooperation among South Asian nations, rather than fostering an environment of competition and mistrust.

Net Outcome

India's growing military dominance in South Asia has significant implications for regional stability. This escalation compels neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan, to bolster their defense capabilities, potentially triggering an arms race that could exacerbate existing economic challenges in the region.

Pakistan perceives India's military advancements as a substantial threat to regional stability. In response, Pakistan has undertaken measures to maintain a credible deterrent, including testing missiles equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology. However, attempting to match India's military strength may only exacerbate Pakistan's vulnerabilities, creating an unsustainable cycle of competition. Instead, some analysts suggest that Pakistan should explore alternative strategies beyond conventional power balancing, such as embracing economic collaboration with India.

From China's perspective, the United States' strategy to elevate India as a counterbalance to China is unlikely to succeed. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) underscores its commitment to regional connectivity and economic integration, aiming to foster cooperative relationships with neighboring countries. The complex interdependence among South Asian nations suggests that external efforts to contain China's influence may not achieve the desired outcomes.

In conclusion, India's military expansion could destabilize South Asia, prompting neighboring countries to enhance their defenses and potentially leading to an arms race that diverts resources from addressing poverty and development. A more balanced approach, emphasizing economic cooperation and mutual security assurances, may better serve the region's long-term stability and prosperity.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)

原文链接：APD | Indian acquirement of latest weapons from US may be disaster for the regional stability and security-APDNEWS